[Macworld]

Post your comments for Has Microsoft placed its last mobile bet? here

[MattSwain]

Microsoft have really dropped the ball on this one but it's not the first time they've sat back all complacent and seen the competition spring up around them with bright new ideas; I'm thinking I.E. vs Firefox here.
I see the mobile market as becoming really significant now that the technology has improved to the point of being actually useful and it's a market that's only going to get bigger. If the market was just a niche as it was in the past then I'd say give it up as a bad job, but I think they're going to have to have one last try and it's going to require a whole hill of cash and ultimately will end in another failure.

[russellb]

Quote

As an example, he points to the fact that many people take photos with their phones but don’t ever move those photos off the phone. “They want to put them on the PC and the TV, share them with others, fix red eye, make slideshows. Yet they can’t,

Poor Microsoft users have not been able to do this. On an Iphone it's trivial. If they can't even work out how to accomplish that trivial task then give up. Typical of Microsoft they seem to find it hard to innovate .. they are good at copying. For years I have tried Win Mobile on and off and have always given up , they fail to improve and innovate. I really can't see whats going to change , they will simply copy others and do a bad job of it.

This post has been edited by russellb: 08 November 2009 - 12:04 PM

[jdb8167]

iSuppli thinks that Microsoft will have 15+% market share by 2013? Really iSuppli? I think someone needs to iCal that one.

That has to be one of the most ridiculous and unlikely predictions I've seen in a while. Way to put your reputation on the line iSuppli.

[dreyfus]

What it boils down to (IMHO):

- WM is the only mobile OS that costs money (others are either free or can't be licensed at all) while being far behind all of them... this can't work.
- With RIMM investing in creating a WebKit based browser for the BBs and everybody else already using the best, MS, already having the worst browser on the desktop, is not even on the same map. All WM 6.5 phones add Opera to give people at least some quality.
- WM has no platform identity, as all decent implementations use custom OEM-GUIs, and all of them fall apart almost instantly once you leave the flashy home screen - it is all Windows 3.1 underneath. Sheer ugliness.
- Too many input methods and button layouts. Add the unneeded and confusing multiple mobile OS and browser mess they have created and you have a very hard time to attract developers.
- Their "holy trinity" (TV, Phone, PC) has long arrived on other platforms. I make a video on my 3GS and can watch it on my PC and Apple TV, share it via MobileMe or YouTube. Every Mac comes with all the software required to edit, add music and titles and maps... what does MS offer? PCs loaded with trialware and crapware that people fight to get rid off!
- MS' status as being unavoidable has eroded. 90s are over. IT admins are no longer the secret leaders of companies... people bring in their Macs and iPhones and they have to make it work. RIMM started the erosion and the iPhone was the final kick. MS won't recover in the mobile area. They have no taste, no creativity and no dedication. Thanks to their useless management they now have in-house competition between mobile platforms and none of them is going anywhere. Zune is too little, too late. WM is dying for good. They have burned the Danger name with their "no backup, oops" disaster and they are 100% unable to advise a WM7 timeline and feature set (lesson learned from the Longhorn/Vista debacle I assume).
- Independent OEMs invest in Android, and they won't keep paying MS in addition. Makes no sense.

iPhone, Android and RIMM will survive this. Other platforms are already too far behind.

[crleatherman]

Prior to buying the original iPhone (after the price drop from $600.00 to $400.00) I had bought an HTC (AT&T 8525) with Windows Mobile. The HTC phone actually cost a lot more than the iPhone after the price drop. I loved the HTC phone BUT, I hated, repeat, hated Windows mobile. IE on the phone was absolutely terrible. Windows mobile constantly crashed or hung up where I had to remove the battery in order to turn it on or off. The problem was supposedly not with the phone but with the OS. Evidently this was a fairly common issue. If I ever decide to move away from the iPhone (not likely), I would consider one of the Android phones. I've Played with the Cliq (T-Mobile) and it's really cool. The advertised Verizon Motorola Droid model has a better screen resolution than the iPhone and is slightly larger. Still, I love the iPhone.

[cv]

Microsoft Zune is in its endgame. I believe Microsoft has stated that they are committed to one more iteration of the hardware, but having dropped all models except the Zune HD, it seems pretty clear that if the HD isn't a blockbuster, Microsoft will pull the plug.

It's a shame that Microsoft can field a credible competitor to the iPhone/iPod touch. Just looking at the specs, the Zune HD is comparable to the iPod touch before the latter got the App Store, but the sales don't seem to be going through the roof.

Competition drives innovation, and I don't want to see Apple as the sole player in the iPod touch market.

Disclaimer: I own shares of both MSFT and AAPL.

This post has been edited by cv: 08 November 2009 - 03:02 PM

[neutrino23]

I find it hard to believe that MS will gain any market share in the next few years. They are moving so slowly and with such little result how could that happen? Is there some special niche they occupy much as RIMM is strong in corporate email?

[dreyfus]

cv, on 08 November 2009 - 11:59 PM, said:

Microsoft Zune is in its endgame. I believe Microsoft has stated that they are committed to one more iteration of the hardware, but having dropped all models except the Zune HD, it seems pretty clear that if the HD isn't a blockbuster, Microsoft will pull the plug.

Well, it is holding the 46th rank among MP3-Player bestsellers on Amazon, with Apple clearly dominating the first 20 spots and even 3 San Disk models outselling the Zune HD... After the initial wave of Apple-haters got theirs, sales plummeted instantly (typical Zune-pattern). Being 46 in the US and not available elsewhere, what should it achieve?

cv, on 08 November 2009 - 11:59 PM, said:

Competition drives innovation, and I don't want to see Apple as the sole player in the iPod touch market.

This is a commonplace and often true, but in the MP3 player and smartphone business all we see is dozens of companies trying to copy Apple and not succeeding. Copying is not innovation and Apple never improved because of competition - they have their own pace. They did not even bother to wipe 10 bucks off the touch price to go head-to-head with the Zune HD.

[KPOM]

I think Microsoft needs a big acquisition to stay relevant in the future. I expect there to be one more significant version of Office and Windows after Office 2010 and Windows 7. After that, the PC market looks cloudier. They need to acquire an innovative company, give them some funding, but otherwise let them do their thing.

As for Windows Mobile, I think what we may see is a merger of the Windows 7 and Windows Mobile code at some point. If the Courier is for real, it offers one potential niche market where a mobile version of Windows can thrive. The eBook and Tablet markets are very much in play, and for all the talk of "convergence" it seems that with every step toward convergence (e.g. merger of music player, PDA, game player, and phone) a market opens up for another new gadget (eBook reader). Merging the two kernels, or at least creating a cross-platform development tool, would be a good step toward keeping WM relevant.

[dreyfus]

KPOM, on 09 November 2009 - 12:51 AM, said:

I think Microsoft needs a big acquisition to stay relevant in the future. I expect there to be one more significant version of Office and Windows after Office 2010 and Windows 7. After that, the PC market looks cloudier. They need to acquire an innovative company, give them some funding, but otherwise let them do their thing.

Interesting thought. What would be a beneficial target and one that anti-trust regulators world-wide would allow them to buy? I honestly can't imagine them approving any significant deals for years to come.

[Grapho]

This is the reason why I think Apple will always be ahead of the game.

"We're the only company that owns the whole widget -- the hardware, the software, and the operating system. We can take full responsibility for the user experience. We can do things that the other guy can't do."

Steve Jobs 2002


This in a nutshell, this is practically why I think Apple Macintosh, iPod, iTunes and the iPhone are so successful today. Just wait until software developers start cranking our Open CL, Grand Central 64 bit version of there applications. Windows 7 is going to look like DOS.

This post has been edited by Grapho: 08 November 2009 - 05:07 PM

[BradPDX]

Sometime in 2005 I told friends that I would be shocked - genuinely shocked - if Microsoft ever released anything that would be considered new or innovative ever again. I was convinced then that the model of "one platform many makers" had reached it's endgame, given profound disconnect between real users and the makers of said platform.

I don't see that changing. I believe that Microsoft's very successful business model was purely a product of the times, good luck and brazen behavior. That period has passed, and I see no reason for the model to work again.

That said, I'd like to see Apple have some competition, but Microsoft isn't even really that anymore.

[Norton]

MIcrosoft should keep throwing money at WiMo and Zune. Otherwise what are they going to do with the Billions of dollars from Windows 7 sales? Give them back to their shareholders?