[MW Forums]

Apple Computer’s stock price continues to set post-Power Macintosh G4 Cube records, most recently last week with a closing price of $68.44 per share on Monday, November 29. That’s the company’s sixth-highest closing price of all time; the watermark remains $72.10 per share on March 22, 2000. more

[Grapho]

I really don't understand way people use Windows. Funny how the Mac is not really doing much better, it's the i-pod that is driving Apple's stalk price. I don't even own one, although I do want one. But what I don't understand is that OS X is not marginally better then Windows XP, it is substantially better in more then security and stability. It is by far more usable, more productive and esthetic, if such things would matter. I am forced to use Windows at work so it's not like I don't have a point of comparison. It's unstable, insecure, ugly OS, and it's the best that MS has to offer to date, all give it that.
I work for a service bureau. We recently bought an Indigo 3050 HP digital printing press. It's weakest link is the fact that it runs on Windows. Not one month in to our accusation, and I have already had to restore the whole system once. No power failure or user error, just Windows being Windows. The sad part about it is that it used to run on Unix, but someone decided to port everything to Windows.

[jmincey]

Stock analysts remind me of Hollywood movie financiers and producers who pressure studios into making the next blockbuster -- which, according to their thinking -- would be a me-too retread of a proven money-maker at the box office. Original films are highly discouraged -- because the film financiers don't understand the ingredients of a hit; they just want the sure thing (which in their mind means repackaging a proven commodity).
Stock analysts have a slightly different take on this which is almost paradoxical. They see Apple has coming out with profitable new concepts, product designs, and paradigms and want Apple to churn out the next profitable "new" thing -- with the Apple brand on it. It's as if any new thing Apple does right now will have the Midas touch, and this is the extent of the wisdom of the analysts.
Also, I agree with "gambit" below that this is a very good article indeed. Thanks to MacWorld for publishing it here.

[tabasco_hot]

If Apple has a lot of surprise news on the Mac front at MWSF this stock should go through the roof, and sales could likely boom. I love MWSF /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[gambit]

Wow. Now THIS was an excellent article. Man, I hope MacCentral keeps this up. Because of this article, I've subscribed to MacJournals. I hope all of their articles are this well written and informative.

[Goldy]

Great analysis, but I think there is also a psychological aspect to Wall Street's attitude towards Apple. Wall Street analysts tend not to use Macs. Therefore their lack of faith in Apple's future is partly an affirmation of their own "smart" decision to go with a Windows PC.
iPod changes this dynamic, because these very same analysts are buying iPods. They are not only being personally introduced to Apple's superior aesthetics (an asset difficult to quantify on the annual report), but in touting Apple's future they are also reaffirming their own purchasing decision.
One is a lot more likely to view a company positively when one is a satisfied customer.

[Jason Snell]

Thanks, gambit. MacJournals.com does a great job and we're happy to be syndicating some of their excerpts here at Macworld.

[Nobody]

I predict that the petals with fall from the current rose once the Xmas buying season is over and MWSF shows no major improvement to the Macintosh line (there will be no 3GHz PM or a G5 PowerBook).
Apple is a ONE race horsey stable; the iPod and it's variations that aren't very unique. The "picture pod" is nothing new and there's lots of competition out there already with hand sized DV players/recorders. Besides, if the market wants MP3, etc. video players, the likes of Sony, Canon, Panasonic, etc. will clobber Apple with all their existing experience miniturizing DV recorders. I have a Canon Elura 50MC DVcorder that's already nearly as small as an iPod.
Frankly, I haven't heard any media reports that Xmas buyers are "horny" for iPods this seaso; and I have already seen discounting on Apple iPods and especially hpPods on the interenet and brick-n-mortar stores the first week of December!
Once the Xmas buying season "shine" is off the iPod, you watch for the FTC notifications of Apple exec's selling off stock "Very" quickly. So noted.

[Grapho]

MWSF might or might not announce something good. The i-pod might or may not be selling very well this Xmas season. I think your prediction is dependent on to many questionable accretions, so by definition it's questionable. /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[Steve_S]

In reply to:

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Apple is a ONE race horsey stable; the iPod and it's variations that aren't very unique. The "picture pod" is nothing new and there's lots of competition out there already with hand sized DV players/recorders.

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I'm not quite sure how your discussion went from mp3 players to DV camcorders. They are different markets and have nothing in common. I have a Sony Camcorder and am quite happy with it. That said, I wouldn't touch their music player with a ten foot pole. It's more expensive and isn't nearly as nice as the iPod.
I agree that the picture thing is not a big deal. It's a nice "extra" feature, but not a selling point for me. I'd be much more interested if a future version were able to play Quicktime movies, particularly in the new h.264 codec. Carrying aound photos are nice, but having a portable movie player would be even better. It doesn't sound like Jobs is interested in going this direction, but one can always hope he changes his mind.

In reply to:

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Frankly, I haven't heard any media reports that Xmas buyers are "horny" for iPods this seaso; and I have already seen discounting on Apple iPods and especially hpPods on the interenet and brick-n-mortar stores the first week of December!

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Your anecdotal evidence aside, industry analysts seem to disagree with you as they are raising their sales expectations. Some are now expecting in the neighborhood of 4 million units this quarter. That's about double what they did last quarter. As for the following quarter, remember that everyone though sales would drop after the holiday season last year. Instead, the sales were up significantly. To help fuel that fire, the rumor sites have been discussing iPod mini updates to come at MWSF. Additionally, there is talk of Apple entering the flash based market to capture the low end purchases.
While I don't think Apple will be able to keep it's existing marketshare as high as it is, I do believe they will always be on top, mostly because the competition is weak by comparison. People tend to forget that it's not just the iPod itself that is responsibile for it's success. Instead, it's the type of thing that only Apple can deliver like a first rate music jukebox software like iTunes and the smooth integration that comes with it. It's the top notch music store. It's the entire iPod platform that's built around it with more third party add-ons than all other competing products combined. Now, at this point, it's also about momentum. To knock off the king, it's not enough to be "as good", you have to be both better and cheaper. I haven't seen that yet.
Steve

[KingKerry]

By your logic the iPod should ave long ago given up it's market share to Sony. Given their past record with portable music players. The new Sony is a poor attempt to get into the digital music arena. Its DRM is even more draconian than that of Apple for starters. To say nothing of the lousy interface and unattractive form factor.
Like the investors say. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

[Nobody]

OK, for the clueless ..... the "music" feature aspect of the iPod is now at a dead-end, so where has Apple moved to? Pictures and the wacko "rumor mill sites" are pointing towards a video player. Now for those that are too clueless to make the connection .... what do DVcorders have as an integral component? Tick, tick, tick, tick .... times up, A VIDEO PLAY-BACK CAPABILITY! ALL the Japanese, and now Korean manufacturers and Experts at making these, minuturizing them and the quality is mind boggling! SO .... who do you think would win out in a head to head? DUH!
As for the musical iPod? Yeah early imatators were crap. But the recent crop from Creative, Dell (same as Creative) and iRiver are just as good as if not better than iPod on many fronts, especially battery life and price. I have a 1st and 2nd gen iPod (for Mac), and also the latest Creative Zen 60GB ... tell ya what, I always take the Zen with on trips cause I have a couple spare drop-in batteries to take along, instead of looking for a 110v outlet to recharge. Navigation is just as good as iPod and WMA is a better Codec than AAC.
The One Horsey Stable ride will be over soon for Apple, as they are paying more attention to iPod variants than the computer business. /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/mad.gif

[n8mac]

In reply to:

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Just in the Steve Jobs era, analysts have insisted that Apples best chance for Microsoft-like growth is in making cell phones, PDAs, set-top boxes, digital video recorders (including more than one suggestion to purchase TiVo, Inc.), PC clones, and most recently, handheld video players.

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By listing off a bunch of hardware as Apples' future success, most notably PC clones, are they implying that Apple discontinue the Mac and their best product ever, OS X and make Windoze boxes? Did I miss something?

[Steve_S]

In reply to:

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what do DVcorders have as an integral component? Tick, tick, tick, tick .... times up, A VIDEO PLAY-BACK CAPABILITY!

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Okay, so your conclusion is that we'll all start to carry around camcorders with us because such a device is also capable of playing back sound and video? /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/blush.gif Really, you ought to be more careful about throwing the word clueless around. /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smirk.gif Your assumption is off base on so many levels that it's almost comical. For starters, yes, lets give credit for advances in miniturizing the video camcorder. That said, they're still huge by comparison. Additionally, there is a difference between video capture and video playback devices and places that you're allowed to take both. Many public and commercial places ban video phones, not to mention video cameras. Then there are issues of MiniDV tape vs. hard drive, compressed vs. uncompressed video, etc. which you fail to take into consideration. The bottom line, as I said previously, these are very different devices and likely always will be. Many consumer digital cameras can playback still images to their screen and have video out (to TV) like the iPod. That doesn't mean there isn't a need for centralized storage of such images. It doesn't mean that I'm going to keep my collection of still images on my digital camera! The iPod photo addresses this issue just the same as a video playback iPod would serve a different purpose than a camcorder would.

In reply to:

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As for the musical iPod? Yeah early imatators were crap. But the recent crop from Creative, Dell (same as Creative) and iRiver are just as good as if not better than iPod on many fronts, especially battery life and price.

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Some are better on price. Some are better with battery life. None are easier to use or navigate a music catalog with. None have better software to integrate with. I've yet to see one actually get a better review, especially from a non biased source. Maybe you're reading Maximum PC??

In reply to:

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Navigation is just as good as iPod and WMA is a better Codec than AAC.

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First, I suggest you try the 4th generation iPods with the click wheel, etc. You'll find error in your ease of navigation claim. Second, in the past, I've seen spectral analysis test prove AAC is better than WMA at the same bit rate and the results of public listening tests, though subjective, seem to back that up. If you have any such evidence which demonstrates WMA is superior, I'd be interested in seeing it. Until that time, we both know there is no basis for your claim.

In reply to:

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The One Horsey Stable ride will be over soon for Apple, as they are paying more attention to iPod variants than the computer business.

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I'm not sure what your issue with Apple is, but again, there's nothing to support your claim. The fact that Apple has spun off a separate iPod division should be enough for most to understand this is necessary specifically so that you don't have all of your resources going to one product area. Additionally, Apple seems to have done quite a bit in both the Mac hardware and Mac software side since the introduction of the iPod. Likewise, it would seem you continue to produce baseless claims. Any other myths you'd like to share?
Steve