Survey: Intel transition may cool Mac sales
#15
Posted 21 June 2005 - 04:38 PM
I think that the Intel switch will definitely cool Mac sales this year and next. Apple is aware of this (I just got an e-mail from them entitled "Now's the time for a new Mac". I know for myself, I will not be buying any new hardware until the new Intel machines are trialed and tested (which will probably early 2008). I just hope that Apple can make this transition.
#16
Posted 21 June 2005 - 05:03 PM
I've been grumbling about this situation for a while now, but now I feel there's some hope. Both Macs and PCs are stepping out into the 64-bit world. As a power user with a lot of Macs, Apple's going to have to do two things to get my next major purchase. 64-bit software on a 64-bit OS on a 64-bit processor, and it's going to have to scream. Loud. With complete control over their hardware and OS, there's no reason Apple shouldn't produce THE box for power hungry apps.
But I haven't seen a real effort on the part of Apple to keep us power users happy. A very weak update to FCP, OS features that actually suck processing from apps (Spotlight was causing so many pauses in FCP 5 that I had to disable it), Firewire 800 still doesn't work properly on G5 motherboards, and no PCI Express.
So on the dark side they could just invent the next great consumer iWhatever and forget about us power users entirely. I'm sure that would actually make their shareholders happier.
But I haven't seen a real effort on the part of Apple to keep us power users happy. A very weak update to FCP, OS features that actually suck processing from apps (Spotlight was causing so many pauses in FCP 5 that I had to disable it), Firewire 800 still doesn't work properly on G5 motherboards, and no PCI Express.
So on the dark side they could just invent the next great consumer iWhatever and forget about us power users entirely. I'm sure that would actually make their shareholders happier.
#18
Posted 21 June 2005 - 05:22 PM
>> I was lucky enough to buy Apple a few years ago when it was at $13 (pre-split) >>
Apples stock price appears to be pegged to NASDAQ and news about its iPod about as much as its PC business. So except for a market crash, the stock is not likely to reach those lows again during the transition.
When you bought your stock, Apple didnt have a viable business model. Without a workable business model, there was no fair way to price the stock. Times have changed. Many stock analysts today would agree that Apples outlook has never looked better and the stock price during this transition should reflect this. Im dont expect the stock to drop below $28.
Apples stock price appears to be pegged to NASDAQ and news about its iPod about as much as its PC business. So except for a market crash, the stock is not likely to reach those lows again during the transition.
When you bought your stock, Apple didnt have a viable business model. Without a workable business model, there was no fair way to price the stock. Times have changed. Many stock analysts today would agree that Apples outlook has never looked better and the stock price during this transition should reflect this. Im dont expect the stock to drop below $28.
#19
Posted 21 June 2005 - 05:36 PM
I guess I am one of the fortune few, I purchase what is necessary to do my job. I usually upgrade my computers when new ones come out so I will be upgrading to a 2.7G and when the MacIntel comes out I will buy that one and on and on until I am broke. I love being on the bleeding edge of technology.
#20
Posted 21 June 2005 - 05:43 PM
Here are some more important questions:
Among people that work on Macs only, who is in the market for a new Mac in the next 12 months?
Among them, who will buy a PPC Mac, wait for a Nipple (Intel-in-Apple) or defect to a PC?
Pose the same questions to those who work with both Mac and Wintel machines.
Among people that work on Macs only, who is in the market for a new Mac in the next 12 months?
Among them, who will buy a PPC Mac, wait for a Nipple (Intel-in-Apple) or defect to a PC?
Pose the same questions to those who work with both Mac and Wintel machines.
#22
Posted 21 June 2005 - 05:51 PM
Please pixelcruncher do not confuse people more than they are already confused.
Moving to 64-bit does NOT guarantee you an app is going to perform better. In fact some apps could run slower and use more RAM because of 64-bit pointers and other things. Now don't get me wrong if you're crunching numbers in Mathmatica or doing some 3D stuff then I'm sure you'll see some benefits but it's going to vary. I'm seeing too many people place importance on 64-bit without even understanding what it truly gets them.
Spotlight does need to offer more controls and a "whitelist" that allows you to suspend indexing until the application is done or when you choose. The FW800 bug sucks...bad QA. PCI-Express is nice but not necessarily a "must have" yet. However I disagree with calling FCP a "weak" upgrade.
Users wanted background rendering they got Dynamic RT which accomplishes the same task.
Users wanted HDV native support they got it.
Users wanted more audio input channels they got it.
Users wanted a better media manager they sort of got it.
Users wanted a faster compressor they got it
Users wanted Multicam they got it and got it in a flexible intuitive manner
There's not much major stuff missing. I've heard people that want to be able to save project files to different areas and have more media manager features but I'd be curious to know what is missing from FCP5 that makes it "weak" Granted that many of the new features require HD and not all people are using HD yet.
Moving to 64-bit does NOT guarantee you an app is going to perform better. In fact some apps could run slower and use more RAM because of 64-bit pointers and other things. Now don't get me wrong if you're crunching numbers in Mathmatica or doing some 3D stuff then I'm sure you'll see some benefits but it's going to vary. I'm seeing too many people place importance on 64-bit without even understanding what it truly gets them.
In reply to:
But I haven't seen a real effort on the part of Apple to keep us power users happy. A very weak update to FCP, OS features that actually suck processing from apps (Spotlight was causing so many pauses in FCP 5 that I had to disable it), Firewire 800 still doesn't work properly on G5 motherboards, and no PCI Express.
But I haven't seen a real effort on the part of Apple to keep us power users happy. A very weak update to FCP, OS features that actually suck processing from apps (Spotlight was causing so many pauses in FCP 5 that I had to disable it), Firewire 800 still doesn't work properly on G5 motherboards, and no PCI Express.
Spotlight does need to offer more controls and a "whitelist" that allows you to suspend indexing until the application is done or when you choose. The FW800 bug sucks...bad QA. PCI-Express is nice but not necessarily a "must have" yet. However I disagree with calling FCP a "weak" upgrade.
Users wanted background rendering they got Dynamic RT which accomplishes the same task.
Users wanted HDV native support they got it.
Users wanted more audio input channels they got it.
Users wanted a better media manager they sort of got it.
Users wanted a faster compressor they got it
Users wanted Multicam they got it and got it in a flexible intuitive manner
There's not much major stuff missing. I've heard people that want to be able to save project files to different areas and have more media manager features but I'd be curious to know what is missing from FCP5 that makes it "weak" Granted that many of the new features require HD and not all people are using HD yet.
#23
Posted 21 June 2005 - 05:51 PM
Who cares if Apples sells less computers for a little while except shareholders. I went to a car show last year and saw all these people ogling these concept cars. I never heard anyone say I'm not buying another car until that one comes out because Chevrolet will probably stop servicing my car.
I love it how every time Apple makes a change, news agencies equate it to the end of Apple computer. Maybe if IBM could keep up with change they would still be in the PC business.
As a formet NeXT user, let me say that when NeXT stopped making hardware and their software ran on a choice of FOUR different CPU (Motorola/HP-RISC/INTEL/can't remember 4th) I bought a Dell loaded up NeXT and upgraded the software to the multiple binary format that Apple will be using and everything worked. Never thought about it again. As for support for older G4s and G5s, from the developer's point of view, it's a non-ussue, they click one box and poof their programs compile for both architectures. (Isn't Unreal already running on Intel?) And Apple has an excellent track record as far as I'm concerned with support. With the release of Tiger the original iMac stopped being supported. (7 years later!!!!!)
Our company is about to buy 30-60 XServes because price/power beats the pants off of name brand PC servers. The only way we can get them cheaper is to build them ourselves. And we're not ready to create an entire department just to build and maintain servers.
I frankly don't care what this does to Apple's sales or stock price. I own products in my home from dozens if not hundreds of companies, Linksys(Cisco), Sony, GE, Sears, Polo, Coca-Cola, etc and I never check the price of their stock before I buy their products. I let my mutual fund company handle that.
Trends that I am happy about, is news coverage of Apple, good or bad. How many articles are written everytime Dell or HP releases a new desktop computer. (Count the number of Mini, and iMac articles since introduction). For example look at Yahoo's news sections, specifically tech. Apple has it's own tab, not microsoft, not dell, not HP, not Alien. Just Apple Why do you think Yahoo devotes an entire section to users that make up only 2% or the computer users. Or why on Cnet's personal tech:desktop news page 4 of the 11 articles are about Apple. Because people care about Apple. Apple changes the way the world computes not just Apple users.
What was the USB adoption rate before the iMac...now can you find a PC, or XBox, or Sony PS without USB?
Sorry for going off topic but I don't usually post to discussion boards and this is a rare time for me. Lucky you
I love it how every time Apple makes a change, news agencies equate it to the end of Apple computer. Maybe if IBM could keep up with change they would still be in the PC business.
As a formet NeXT user, let me say that when NeXT stopped making hardware and their software ran on a choice of FOUR different CPU (Motorola/HP-RISC/INTEL/can't remember 4th) I bought a Dell loaded up NeXT and upgraded the software to the multiple binary format that Apple will be using and everything worked. Never thought about it again. As for support for older G4s and G5s, from the developer's point of view, it's a non-ussue, they click one box and poof their programs compile for both architectures. (Isn't Unreal already running on Intel?) And Apple has an excellent track record as far as I'm concerned with support. With the release of Tiger the original iMac stopped being supported. (7 years later!!!!!)
Our company is about to buy 30-60 XServes because price/power beats the pants off of name brand PC servers. The only way we can get them cheaper is to build them ourselves. And we're not ready to create an entire department just to build and maintain servers.
I frankly don't care what this does to Apple's sales or stock price. I own products in my home from dozens if not hundreds of companies, Linksys(Cisco), Sony, GE, Sears, Polo, Coca-Cola, etc and I never check the price of their stock before I buy their products. I let my mutual fund company handle that.
Trends that I am happy about, is news coverage of Apple, good or bad. How many articles are written everytime Dell or HP releases a new desktop computer. (Count the number of Mini, and iMac articles since introduction). For example look at Yahoo's news sections, specifically tech. Apple has it's own tab, not microsoft, not dell, not HP, not Alien. Just Apple Why do you think Yahoo devotes an entire section to users that make up only 2% or the computer users. Or why on Cnet's personal tech:desktop news page 4 of the 11 articles are about Apple. Because people care about Apple. Apple changes the way the world computes not just Apple users.
What was the USB adoption rate before the iMac...now can you find a PC, or XBox, or Sony PS without USB?
Sorry for going off topic but I don't usually post to discussion boards and this is a rare time for me. Lucky you
#24
Posted 21 June 2005 - 07:14 PM
Any FCP upgrade is weak until the Undo/Redo list reads more than "Undo" and "Redo". I'd pay an extra $100 for this "feature" /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif
As far as the 32-bit/64-bit debate. We'll see. 5 minutes after the first guy gets his new Intel Mac the benchmarks will be up. It's apples to apples now. All I was saying was, strictly as a power user, Apple needs to come out with some serious horsepower to convince me to continue buying a new Mac every year. But I hold out hope that Apple will have THE platform to run power hungry apps.
As far as the 32-bit/64-bit debate. We'll see. 5 minutes after the first guy gets his new Intel Mac the benchmarks will be up. It's apples to apples now. All I was saying was, strictly as a power user, Apple needs to come out with some serious horsepower to convince me to continue buying a new Mac every year. But I hold out hope that Apple will have THE platform to run power hungry apps.
#27
Posted 21 June 2005 - 08:33 PM
I use both Mac and Wintels here on a daily basis, and here are my likelihoods:
Next year:
PPC Mac now: 70%
Nipple Mac later (I prefer Mantel, myself): 30%
"Defect" to PC: 0% - I have simply had enough of Windows... no more for me. Just upgrades from here on in.
In two years, the likelihoods will probably be:
PPC Mac (on sale): 70%
Nipple Mac: 30%
In three years (after the move has stabilized):
PPC Mac (on eBay): 10% (if I need another Classic machine)
Nipple Mac: 90%
Bottom line, I think it makes good sense to buy a stable, fast Mac now and then wait a couple of years or more until the MacTel machines are bombproof. The best possible route would be to wait until the PPC Macs are discounted when the Intel Macs arrive (despite the obligatory hype that will follow the Intel launch).
Then again, I don't think waiting for the Intel machines is foolish, either. I bought an 840AV back when they were discounted during the PPC transition, and it served me well for 3 years as my main machine (and another 3 years as a secondary machine). but I have to admit that during that time I was jealous of the speeds the PPC crowd enjoyed. The transition was much smoother and faster than anticipated, and the native software came quickly. This is a more ambitious transition, but they're starting at a much more advanced stage. I expect it to be pretty smooth.
But I'll still probably pick up a PPC cheaply and ride it out a bit.
Next year:
PPC Mac now: 70%
Nipple Mac later (I prefer Mantel, myself): 30%
"Defect" to PC: 0% - I have simply had enough of Windows... no more for me. Just upgrades from here on in.
In two years, the likelihoods will probably be:
PPC Mac (on sale): 70%
Nipple Mac: 30%
In three years (after the move has stabilized):
PPC Mac (on eBay): 10% (if I need another Classic machine)
Nipple Mac: 90%
Bottom line, I think it makes good sense to buy a stable, fast Mac now and then wait a couple of years or more until the MacTel machines are bombproof. The best possible route would be to wait until the PPC Macs are discounted when the Intel Macs arrive (despite the obligatory hype that will follow the Intel launch).
Then again, I don't think waiting for the Intel machines is foolish, either. I bought an 840AV back when they were discounted during the PPC transition, and it served me well for 3 years as my main machine (and another 3 years as a secondary machine). but I have to admit that during that time I was jealous of the speeds the PPC crowd enjoyed. The transition was much smoother and faster than anticipated, and the native software came quickly. This is a more ambitious transition, but they're starting at a much more advanced stage. I expect it to be pretty smooth.
But I'll still probably pick up a PPC cheaply and ride it out a bit.



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