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Merrill Lynch: Users likely to prefer Xbox 360 over PS3

#15 User is offline   jedi228 Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 10:54 AM

I totally agree with sigma. I happen to be a big playstation fan, but never underestimate the power of Halo.
One killer app can outweigh a thousand strong selling titles. Is xbox hype just propaganda? --the answer is yes, but enough people believe the hype, so in the real world hype wins.
Microsoft is able to convince most people that the Windows interface basically the same or better than the Mac interface. Is it so hard to believe that Microsoft can also convince people that Xbox360 is better than PS3? Whether it is really true or not is beside the point.
I was at a party a couple months ago and about 30 people had xbox and only 3 of us had PS. I was terrible at Halo, but it was pretty awesome to network the entire room.
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#16 User is offline   jedi228 Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 11:27 AM

While the sales figures (provided by tallscot) seem to indicate that PS kicks butt over XB there are some features that must be noted.
The figure you show are sums over a period of years. The XB is newer and has fewer years; its games have fewer years. The PS devices, individual titles and game franchises are totalled over a longer period of years.
Also the figures are sums and don't display direction. The XB year to year growth curve is upward where the PS curve is flat or even slightly downward. Many of the top selling PS titles reached their peak 3 or 4 years ago and are at the tailend of a downward slope. Many XB titles are still in the upswing. Many of the guys that bought those PS games 4 years ago are today buying XB games because they have switched consoles.
If you make a chart of titles sold in 2005, PS will still be somewhat ahead of the XB, but the XB has a stronger growth curve.
Same thing goes for game selection (i.e. total number of titles). Here the PS blows the XB away by an order of magnitude. But PS has existed longer; the growth curve belongs to XB.
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#17 User is online   tallscot Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 11:45 AM

Those are PS/2 games, not PS/1. I thought the PS/2 shipped after the XBox? When did those consoles ship?
When did Halo ship? When did Grand Theft Auto San Andreas ship?
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#18 User is offline   sigma8 Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 11:54 AM

Also, if those sales figures are worldwide, that will influence them highly. I would wager 90% of Halo sales were in the USA, whereas GTA sales were probably scattered between USA and Europe with a smattering in Japan, and Gran Turismo was probably pretty evenly distributed.
Sony was top dog in all three major regions. Xbox was #2 in USA and Europe and a distant #3 in Japan, so I think if you compare its sales to its installed base, Halo sold pretty spectacularly.
The thing is, the Xbox will come out this christmas, and although there are solid rumors that MS will be limiting supply to maniupate the media reports of it being "sold out", they will sell I bet around a half million consoles by the end of 2005 (assuming it comes out in November). Then they will have a good six months or so to whip up some solid third-party titles that aren't based on existing franchises--doing this during a new hardware launch is the best time, since there are so few games, really good ones will get more attention no matter what they are. Whereas, well into a console's life, games like Beyond Good & Evil and Ico can lose out to big name sequels.
Unlike Sony who seems to be the habit of not caring about itself or it's customers (their handling of the PSP is nearly inexcusable...it launched well then entered a game drought that continues until now, whereas the Nintendo DS started out crappy, but IMO has overtaken it), MS will not stop trying to market their console. They are going to be badgering developers to get games out on it ASAP, they are going to be adding all kinds of useless cool features that will sound enticing to users.. Like the media playing (nice, but it will be limited, probably WMV only), probably re-organize their XBLive interface, and other little odds and ends.
Sony, on the other hand, will release their console with a few commercials. Then just sit there, and wait to see what comes out for it. That's my guess. That seems to be what they did with the PS2 and PSP (the headstart saved them with the PS2, because seriously, were there good games for the PS2 besides SSX and Madden for like the first 8 months of its release?). Hopefully their new CEO will fix this inadequacy.
I personally think Nintendo will do better this time around. They are going to be selling a system that sounds comparable to the XB, capability wise.. It will play DVD's, probably won't stream media from Media PC's so (but seriously who will care). It will offer a huge back catalog (hopefully at launch) of all sorts of classic Nintendo games from practically every Nintendo system ever made.. And presumably, it will still see ports of the same games showing up on the Xbox. My only concern is the controller may make ports a bit klugey. But Nintendo is much more eager to be online this time, and if the horsepower is about the same, the only limiting factor will be controller.
Also.. People! PS/2 is either a keyboard/mouse connector standard, or a an IBM Personal System/2 Computer! Next thing you know, people will be running OS/X.
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#19 User is offline   n3al3aton Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 11:59 AM

RE: When Consoles Shipped
The PS2 shipped in 2000. the XBox and The Nintendo Gamecube both shipped in 2001.
Halo shipped with the XBox (or very close to ship date), and GTA San Andreas shipped this year in July or August.
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#20 User is online   tallscot Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 12:06 PM

: When Consoles Shipped
The PS2 shipped in 2000. the XBox and The Nintendo Gamecube both shipped in 2001.
Halo shipped with the XBox (or very close to ship date), and GTA San Andreas shipped this year in July or August.

Thanks!
San Andreas sold 12 million copies since July of this year? Halo sold over 4 million over 4 years and Halo 2 sold 6 million since it shipped last year.
Gran Turismo 4 shipped Febrary of this year, right? It sold 8 million.
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#21 User is offline   n3al3aton Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 12:37 PM

My mistake...GTA: San Andreas released for th PS2 last October...and for the XBox this summer.
Still 12 million units in a year is NOTHING to sneeze at.
Are the sales figures above just for the PS2 version of the game, or both it and the XBox version?
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#22 User is offline   Moof_in_Charge Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 01:47 PM

so they're pumping the Xbox to drive the stock price up... Typical Pump & Dump... This is just unreal....
The last time price meant anything in this market was back in the Atari daysAs soon as one of them drops the price the other one is right behind it... by ML's price argument, Nintendo should be the number one vendor by 2 folds since their box is cheaper by a factor of 2.
What a laughing joke this is!
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#23 User is offline   jedi228 Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 02:01 PM

In reply to:

San Andreas sold 12 million copies since July of this year? Halo sold over 4 million over 4 years and Halo 2 sold 6 million since it shipped last year.


(actually San Andreas came out last year) Yah, the numbers show the power of a franchise. They also show the curve associated with Halo. Halo2 sold more in the first six months than Halo1 in all its years.
Specific titles have a curve associated with them. Franchises also have a curve associated with them. Franchises take longer to develop than a single popular title.
PS2 had a huge advantage of developing from franchises developed in the PS1 days. So even though certain titles like Final Fantasy, GTA, Madden, Need4Speed seem recent, they were already 4 or 5 years into the franchise at the time PS2 launched.
My point being, that XBox hasn't even begun to to fully receive benefits from franchise effects. PS2 has already received much of its franchise bonuses years ago.
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#24 User is online   tallscot Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 02:03 PM

My point being, that XBox hasn't even begun to to fully recognize franchise effects. PS2 has already received much of its franchise bonuses.
Makes sense.
What's Nintendo's excuse? /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif
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#25 User is offline   jedi228 Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 02:17 PM

In reply to:

What's Nintendo's excuse?


Nintendo has a chance to come back this time around if they play their cards right. (btw Nintendo used to be a card company) But they only have this one chance before they get Sega-ed.
PS. I am a supporter of Playstation. But anybody who underestimates Microsoft will go the way of Lotus 123, WordPerfect, Netscape or Palm. Nobody should ever sit on their butt...
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#26 User is offline   Reenee Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 02:23 PM

Nintendo has no intention to compete. As you can see, they are in a position to try something new. They are in a position to keep themselves stable. They KNOW what to do.
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#27 User is online   tallscot Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 02:29 PM

PS. I am a supporter of Playstation. But anybody who underestimates Microsoft will go the way of Lotus 123, WordPerfect, Netscape or Palm. Nobody should ever sit on their butt...
I'm torn on this issue. I always said that if Windows was superior to an OS X Mac, I'd go with Windows because I'm just choosing the best product.
I don't know about the XBox, though. It's my opinion that the XBox, especially with Live, is superior to the PS/2. But given the fact that Microsoft makes billions in profit every single quarter from their monopolies Windows and Office, it's unfair that they can operate the entire Entertainment Division for a loss year after year in an attempt to kill the competition. I don't want to support that.
Because of that, I won't buy an XBox, even if it ends up being the cat's meow.
But you are right, don't ever underestimate Microsoft. They are starting to win against AOL by doing the same thing -- losing money while offering a competing product.
But there is another... /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif
(Google)
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#28 User is offline   sigma8 Icon

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Posted 03 November 2005 - 02:39 PM

PS/2 is an IBM computer from the 80's/early 90's!!
Sony PS2 PS2 PS2
Unless you use Mac OS/X. If you use OS/X, then you can say PS/2, and it won't trigger any alarms for me.
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