Sign In
Register
Help
Police in Philadelphia are working with a criminologist to develop software that can forecast who might commit murder. more
Software that can predict would-be killers?
MultiQuote
#2
windowschmindows 
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 75
- Joined: 01-November 04
Posted 05 December 2006 - 11:26 AM
But...Is the software Universal Binary? /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif
#3
macFanDave
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 777
- Joined: 04-March 04
Posted 05 December 2006 - 11:36 AM
Quote:
But...Is the software Universal Binary? /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif
But...Is the software Universal Binary? /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif
No, but when it is, you will get an entirely new article announcing the fact.
This software would be great for tech journalists who review MP3 players. If the software is worth a s#!+, it would objectively declare that Zune is no "iPod killer!" /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif
#4
aestival
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 269
- Joined: 04-October 04
Posted 05 December 2006 - 11:44 AM
Criminals are very adept at working flawed systems -- it would take them (as a culture) almost no time to figure out what a piece of software was looking for and then to not exhibit (or to mask) those characteristics. Duh.
#5
nmpike
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 454
- Joined: 13-February 04
Posted 05 December 2006 - 11:55 AM
This is a joke, I cannot believe they are actually paying someone to do this! Lawyers will have a hayday with this... "I'm sorry sir... you are being denied parole because the computer says you will kill again."
It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict any human behavior to 100%.... and you have to be 100% guilty of something to be convicted.
Example:
Let's say you are dead set at killing someone... on the way to their house to knock them off, you see a kid playing in the park... your conscience comes in... and you decide it isn't worth it...
Or... you are on your way to kill someone.... you get in a car accident, and lose your arms... you'll never commit the murder.
Even though you may predrict based on past experiences who may repeat offend, it doesn't take a computer to figure that out... it would also be interesting to see how the algorthyms work... like a black or hispanic vs. a white person, and what weights the program give to each....
Then there is the argument of "well there was the intent".... everyone once in their lives has said, "Man, I am gonna kill you!" Is that intent? Maybe you meant it at the time, but reason kicks in....
I cannot believe they are paying someone to do this software... I guess there is a market for everything, I mean, they did used to sell Snake Oil.
mike
It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict any human behavior to 100%.... and you have to be 100% guilty of something to be convicted.
Example:
Let's say you are dead set at killing someone... on the way to their house to knock them off, you see a kid playing in the park... your conscience comes in... and you decide it isn't worth it...
Or... you are on your way to kill someone.... you get in a car accident, and lose your arms... you'll never commit the murder.
Even though you may predrict based on past experiences who may repeat offend, it doesn't take a computer to figure that out... it would also be interesting to see how the algorthyms work... like a black or hispanic vs. a white person, and what weights the program give to each....
Then there is the argument of "well there was the intent".... everyone once in their lives has said, "Man, I am gonna kill you!" Is that intent? Maybe you meant it at the time, but reason kicks in....
I cannot believe they are paying someone to do this software... I guess there is a market for everything, I mean, they did used to sell Snake Oil.
mike
#7
nmpike
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 454
- Joined: 13-February 04
Posted 05 December 2006 - 11:57 AM
Quote:
Why not just wireup empaths and predict who will become murderers and just arrest them before the crime?--Oh yeah, that was "Minority Report".
Why not just wireup empaths and predict who will become murderers and just arrest them before the crime?--Oh yeah, that was "Minority Report".
The one cool thing about Minority Report was the computer... like no keyboard, motion sensors... the first time I saw it, I thought, "that is where apple is heading" /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif
#8
shoaf
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 61
- Joined: 22-June 05
Posted 05 December 2006 - 12:10 PM
Quote:
The one cool thing about Minority Report was the computer... like no keyboard, motion sensors... the first time I saw it, I thought, "that is where apple is heading" /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif
The one cool thing about Minority Report was the computer... like no keyboard, motion sensors... the first time I saw it, I thought, "that is where apple is heading" /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif
It made me at least want to have dual-pointing device support! For instance, You could enlarge, move, and rotate an image all at the same time. Or hold a document window out of the way while you drag & drop a file from one folder to another in Finder.
#9
flybynight
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 889
- Joined: 21-July 06
Posted 05 December 2006 - 12:18 PM
Quote:
It made me at least want to have dual-pointing device support! For instance, You could enlarge, move, and rotate an image all at the same time. Or hold a document window out of the way while you drag & drop a file from one folder to another in Finder.
It made me at least want to have dual-pointing device support! For instance, You could enlarge, move, and rotate an image all at the same time. Or hold a document window out of the way while you drag & drop a file from one folder to another in Finder.
It sounds like some of the "gestures" rumors about possible future interfaces for computers or iPods. It's interesting technology, to say the least.
#10
tallscot
- Veteran
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 1,833
- Joined: 31-January 01
Posted 05 December 2006 - 12:22 PM
Quote:
This is a joke, I cannot believe they are actually paying someone to do this! Lawyers will have a hayday with this... "I'm sorry sir... you are being denied parole because the computer says you will kill again."
It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict any human behavior to 100%.... and you have to be 100% guilty of something to be convicted.
Example:
Let's say you are dead set at killing someone... on the way to their house to knock them off, you see a kid playing in the park... your conscience comes in... and you decide it isn't worth it...
Or... you are on your way to kill someone.... you get in a car accident, and lose your arms... you'll never commit the murder.
Even though you may predrict based on past experiences who may repeat offend, it doesn't take a computer to figure that out... it would also be interesting to see how the algorthyms work... like a black or hispanic vs. a white person, and what weights the program give to each....
Then there is the argument of "well there was the intent".... everyone once in their lives has said, "Man, I am gonna kill you!" Is that intent? Maybe you meant it at the time, but reason kicks in....
I cannot believe they are paying someone to do this software... I guess there is a market for everything, I mean, they did used to sell Snake Oil.
mike
This is a joke, I cannot believe they are actually paying someone to do this! Lawyers will have a hayday with this... "I'm sorry sir... you are being denied parole because the computer says you will kill again."
It is IMPOSSIBLE to predict any human behavior to 100%.... and you have to be 100% guilty of something to be convicted.
Example:
Let's say you are dead set at killing someone... on the way to their house to knock them off, you see a kid playing in the park... your conscience comes in... and you decide it isn't worth it...
Or... you are on your way to kill someone.... you get in a car accident, and lose your arms... you'll never commit the murder.
Even though you may predrict based on past experiences who may repeat offend, it doesn't take a computer to figure that out... it would also be interesting to see how the algorthyms work... like a black or hispanic vs. a white person, and what weights the program give to each....
Then there is the argument of "well there was the intent".... everyone once in their lives has said, "Man, I am gonna kill you!" Is that intent? Maybe you meant it at the time, but reason kicks in....
I cannot believe they are paying someone to do this software... I guess there is a market for everything, I mean, they did used to sell Snake Oil.
mike
I think you need to read the article again.
#12
samrod
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 441
- Joined: 31-August 04
Posted 05 December 2006 - 01:41 PM
Quote:
is IMPOSSIBLE to predict any human behavior to 100%.... and you have to be 100% guilty of something to be convicted.
is IMPOSSIBLE to predict any human behavior to 100%.... and you have to be 100% guilty of something to be convicted.
This is intended for those who are already convicted and serving time in prison. Besides, a parole board's role is specifically to predict the future actions of a parolee. If software can help improve that accuracy, so be it.
#13
macFanDave
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 777
- Joined: 04-March 04
Posted 05 December 2006 - 02:05 PM
I'm sure that the MPAA and RIAA are looking into adapting the program to predicting who will steal movies and music.
Everyone who owns a computer: GUILTY.
Everyone who owns a computer: GUILTY.
#14
folklore
- Member
-
- Group: Members
- Posts: 739
- Joined: 09-August 05
Posted 05 December 2006 - 04:31 PM
As a PhD student in criminal justice, I can tell you that this sort of index is far from new. There are several indices currently in use in criminal justice, all of which have been shown to have relatively high predictive validity. The most common is the Level of Service Inventory Revised (LSI-R). All of these tend to change the arbitrary nature of conditional release systems, many of were based on subjective criteria in the past. More importantly, tools like the LSI-R identify areas where the offender could benefit from treatment (e.g., substance abuse, anger management).
Berk - who is well known in the CJ field - may have simply computerized a paper instrument. Knowing his reputation, I doubt that. It is more likely that he created yet another index that is computerized.
In any event, I'm not at all interested unless the software is open source. The LSI-R and other risk inventory instruments are proprietary and expensive for agencies to purchase. I've heard agency staff say that they don't do risk evaluations because of the cost. If Berk (or anyone else) removed that as a barrier to entry, we'd see much more widespread adoption of needs/risk inventory use. And that would benefit both offenders and the community.
Berk - who is well known in the CJ field - may have simply computerized a paper instrument. Knowing his reputation, I doubt that. It is more likely that he created yet another index that is computerized.
In any event, I'm not at all interested unless the software is open source. The LSI-R and other risk inventory instruments are proprietary and expensive for agencies to purchase. I've heard agency staff say that they don't do risk evaluations because of the cost. If Berk (or anyone else) removed that as a barrier to entry, we'd see much more widespread adoption of needs/risk inventory use. And that would benefit both offenders and the community.
