[Macworld.com]

Despite not even being announced yet, some analysts are already proclaiming Apple's rumored mobile phone dead in the water. Dan Frakes predicts these predictions will be flops... assuming there is such a product, of course. [more]

[RobK]

Wow, did we actually just see a story about why an unannounced, non-existent product is doomed to fail?
There won't be an iPhone for just these reasons. Apple revolutionizes, innovates or both. Modern day Apple doesn't enter saturated, stagnant or failing markets unless they can dramatically improve it or render it obsolete.
So unless they have something just so ridiculously incredible up their sleeves (well beyond iLife integration) there won't be any iPhone.

[rhp]

Awww...Good grief. This whole iPhone thing has gotten so big, if Apple doesn't release the damned thing, their stock will dwindle down to 0.00 and everyone reporting on it will keep reporting on what happened to the iPhone and how not releasing it killed Apple...

[Johnson]

The market for WiFi VOIP phones is not saturated. . .

[danmusician]

I tend to agree with RobK - I really don't see Apple entering the phone market. If they do, I am confident that the product they come out with will be the epitome of design and ease of use.
I think that what Apple does best in the current Jobs era is gauge the market place. And I am convinced that there is NOT a pent up demand for a phone/PDA/media player. The folks who write that these opnions on the internet are tech savy people who have an innate love for electronic toys. They would like such a device, but the "average" user would not.
The majority of iPod purchasers are folks who just what a media player with CD player simplicity. These folks are not interested in an all-in-one device. In fact, they are intimidated by them. I heard a comedian do a routine about his brother giving him a PDA-Cellphone. The point was, he doesn't need or want that much technology in his pocket.
My iPod nano is so small, I forget it's in my pocket. Cell phones are so small these days that they don't take up much space either. I say, keep 'em seperate.
BTW, I would rather carry a phone that was larger and heavier - IF IT GOT DECENT AND RELIABLE RECEPTION. That's the part of a cell phone that begs for improvement!

[d9c9]

Oh wouldn't be great if Apple made a Phone that all it did was make and receive phone calls with Great reception and Blue tooth so it could connect to hands free calling? Think Simplicity.

[thebiggfrogg]

"Awww...Good grief. This whole iPhone thing has gotten so big, if Apple doesn't release the damned thing, their stock will dwindle down to 0.00 and everyone reporting on it will keep reporting on what happened to the iPhone and how not releasing it killed Apple..."
Exhibit A: The "rational" market: the non-existent iPhone and Apple's stock price
Yeah, that is why it kills me when free market ideologues talk about the perfection of the "invisible hand" of the marketplace and the rationality of consumers and investors. Wall Street rational my a--. Ever heard of marketing and "analysis"?--hype that attempts to get our lizard brains doing lizard things. Captialism has its place, but the completely, unfettered libertarian variety is as much a religion based on faith as anything coming out of Rome, Mecca, or Jerusalem. /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/confused.gif

[justme2]

One rumor I've heard, that could increase the iPhone's popularity, is that it will NOT be tied to a specific provider, but will have technology that will enable it to work with most providers upon activation. So, you don't have to worry about buying a brand new phone if you decide to change carriers for some reason.
I'm holding off on a phone upgrade till I see what the iPhone has to offer -- I'm one that would be interested in a phone/PDA combo, and wouldn't mind maybe a small capacity MP3 player mainly for podcasts...

[lwdesign]

I think the "Apple is dead" sentiments mark a new record. Some pundit has predicted demise based on a product that doesn't even exist (with any kind of certainty).
If Apple does go into the mobile phone business, you can bet they've got a new twist on a) connectivity, b) workability, c) ease of use, d) alignment and inter-operability with existing programs like Apple's Address Book or Windows Outlook, and/or e) some ingenious new technology or combination of technologies no one's thoought of before. They'll also do it so that it will be obviously "the way to do it" just like they've done with the iPod and OS X.
Apple always sweats the details. I've had quite a number of clients, associates and friends switch from Windows to Mac over the last 2 years, and who can't wait to tell me about how much they love their new computer. Converrsely, in the last 16 years I've NEVER had anyone call me up rapturously raving about switching to Windows and how great it all is. This is the fundamental difference with Apple: Interfaces done right--to the point of being able to fall in love with the gadget.

[liminal]

While I enjoyed the good points on both sides of this debate, I think both missed the main issue that will limit the iPhone from enjoying iPod-like numbers: battery life. That this will be shorter than an iPod is certain, and I'd wager the result will be that people will want to play less to call more, therefore limiting the over-all value of the device as something that stands out because it can "do both".
The second big issue which I think overshadows the debate you both minimized was design. The top selling phone has consistently been the RAZR, and thats because its engineering makes it so small. In trying to be both a decent MP3 player and a decent phone, the iPhone is going to have to sacrifice the potential for Nano-like (or even RAZR-like?) proportions, thereby again limiting its potential to win it all.
What makes all this interesting, of course, is that Apple has pulled off the impossible designs before and continues to be a leader. Can they do it? Will the Apple magic turn us all into kids in the candy store once again? According to Gizmodo.com, we'll know Monday.

[Benton]

"...Yeah, that is why it kills me when free market ideologues talk about the perfection of the "invisible hand" of the marketplace and the rationality of consumers and investors. Wall Street rational my a--. Ever heard of marketing and "analysis"?--hype that attempts to get our lizard brains doing lizard things. Captialism has its place, but the completely, unfettered libertarian variety is as much a religion based on faith as anything coming out of Rome, Mecca, or Jerusalem."
AMEN!

[danmusician]

Quote:

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I think both missed the main issue that will limit the iPhone from enjoying iPod-like numbers: battery life.

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Actually, I mentioned this in a past post as a reason that I didn't think an iPhone media player would be practical. What happens when you've been listening to tunes all day and then get a phone call but your battery is gone?
I think there are many compelling reasons to keep the devices separate.

[vfx2k4]

The article is off the mark. Cellphone makers and carriers are guilty of some of the worst interface designs in years. It's an even easier mark than say Windows 98 for Apple to come in and show how it's done. Heck go play with a Newton from over a decade ago and you'll find a more intuitive than 95% of mobile handsets out there in 2006. Played with a Blackberry lately? It's interface is functional and spartan at best. Intuitive- nope.

[Dan Frakes]

Quote:

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While I enjoyed the good points on both sides of this debate, I think both missed the main issue that will limit the iPhone from enjoying iPod-like numbers: battery life.

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To be clear, I was addressing only the the argument made in the referenced article. There are many other points -- on both sides -- that could be made /forums/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/wink.gif
But now that you brought it up, battery life is something I've been noting as an obstacle to a good "media phone" for quite a while now. People will accept, grudgingly, that the battery on their iPod/Zen/Zune/Sansa will run out sometimes. Phones are a completely different story; people won't accept short battery life on a phone, so creating a media-playing phone that shares a battery between the phone and the media player is a challenge.
What will have to happen for such a device to be feasible as both a phone and a media player, in my opinion, is one of three things:
1) A battery with such good life that you can enjoy media all you want and still have excellent phone battery life;
2) Power management that always keeps enough juice in reserve for the phone to last an additional x hours/days after the media player dies;
or
3) Dual batteries, one for the media player and one for the phone.

Quote:

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The second big issue which I think overshadows the debate you both minimized was design. The top selling phone has consistently been the RAZR, and thats because its engineering makes it so small. In trying to be both a decent MP3 player and a decent phone, the iPhone is going to have to sacrifice the potential for Nano-like (or even RAZR-like?) proportions, thereby again limiting its potential to win it all.

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I think you're right that an "iPod phone" will likely be larger than a RAZR. But keep in mind that the people in the market for such a device are looking for a replacement for a phone and a media player; many of them will put up with a slightly larger form factor if it means having to carry one device instead of two. (Look at the popularity of Treos and Blackberries, both of which are much larger than the RAZR.)