[adobephile]

THAT'S what I'm talkin' 'bout!
If the iPod market would arguably be the broadest, the iPhone's market yet stands to be "not narrow" by any means. If this sort of Apple UI manages to invade the droll universe of cellular/smart phones, besides being a great phone in its own right, it also stands to be a major inroad for the Macintosh Way into the minds of the unwashed masses.
This could prove to be yet another, and even more significant, end run around the Microsoft hegemony to get more people on Macs.

[kenaustus]

That's where I've been hoping the iPhone would go and it's the one that I would buy.
The ability to have a stripped down version of OS X in the iPhone would change the mobile game dramatically. First it gets rid of the most horrid menus around - the mobile mess. It could also allow us to select pics and contacts from iPhoto and the Address Book for syncing. (I don't want all 6,000+ pics in iPhoto or everyone in my Address Book downloaded). To help our PC friends there would probably be a need for a highly stripped down version of the basic syncing apps, but that only increases the halo effect for Macs.
An OS X Lite would also open the door for existing 3rd party developers to offer Lite versions of their Mac apps, which opens up a huge potential. I'm not talking PhotoShop, but the mass of smaller apps like Overflow or WorldTimes.
The really exciting think about the iPhone for me is the potential features and advancements that Apple could bring to the table. No other company has this potential and I would love to see Apple totally change the mobile game. If they do it will be a massive success.

[writer1]

Arrrrgggggghhhhhhh! Phones! Yuck! Expletive deleted! (etc.)
Okay, what Im really saying is this: I have a great little camera, a DiMage X--pocket sized, easy to carry all the time, and ready for action as a still-photo taker, an acceptable video-making supplement (meaning it is worlds better as a camera and video camera than my Samsung cell phone, which I dont/wont use anyway), and as an excellent voice recorder for use in meetings, etc..
While i enjoy my iTunes feature from time to time, I dont have a music addiction, so I dont require an umbilical connection with an iPod, qPod, or any of the other audio addicts devices.
My Samsung only takes photos/videos in my pocket, when it is accidentally triggered, and takes great close-ups of lint, keys or whatever happens to be there with it. I NEVER deliberately use the cell phone for anything other than making and taking phone calls. THAT IS WHAT I WANT IT FOR--although a PDA aspect that is truly user friendly--and (1) stored on a removable SD chip, or (2) exportable by USB (*etc.) cord, AND Mac compatible, would be appreciated.
The Samsung is useless for anything but telephonic communications, as far as I am concerned--and I dont mind that--but I truly hate the extras that I dont want and--in the case of camera and video, cannot delete, disarm, deactivate, etc.
So, if Apple comes out with a really fine (as in Apple-quality) cell phone that is also a user-friendly PDA, with abortable music/video/photo capabilities, and it is capable of connecting with the Mac for up-, and downloading--and, joy of joys!-- if it is independent of vampirish phone company dependencies, I think theyll find a market.

[sg9]

I was searching for analysts who cover Apple (Shaw Wu, Gene Munster, Ben Reitzes) and found a website called applerumortracker.com that keeps a history of their past predictions. I was surprised to see how clueless these so-called "analysts" are. It seems like they're no better than any of us when it comes to predicting what products Apple will release next, except they get paid a lot of money to do it.

[Peter Cohen]

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It seems like they're no better than any of us when it comes to predicting what products Apple will release next, except they get paid a lot of money to do it.

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Exactly the point I mentioned earlier this week. It's incredible.

[BruceMHerman]

I recently read an article that was based on a survey of unreported size, so take this with a grain of salt: the main reason that multi-media phone services are failing in the US is because their cost is too high. Apparently, text messaging, sending photos and downloading music in Europe are all much less expensive than in the US and the services there are having more success. I have no first hand knowledge of that. I wish I could remember the source. However, I do know that my provider charges ridiculous fees for all of these. I have purchased only the minimal cellular phone service because of poor quality and high prices. My Motorola RAZR was free with the contract, but is used only as a phone.
For what it's worth, its interface is usable, but not very good. Its battery life and sound quality are poor.

[OidhcheOlan]

I was about to buy a new cell phone when I heard about the "iPhone." Although not a new rumor, this time around it sounds like it just might be for real. So, I am waiting. I think if this thing is for real, it could in fact be wildly popular, relatively speaking, with Mac users. I think Mac users would be highly receptive to the idea that they could buy a cell phone/music player that is tightly integrated and guaranteed to work with iSync/iLife and supported by Apple. If one needed support, imagine being able to call AppleCare and they make it all happen, including support for the phone. Of course, execution is the key here. iPhone would need to be easy and reliable out of the gate, and for those who do have problems, Apple's techs need to be ready to support this product. If Apple could pull this off, they could be a real surprise in this market.
OO

[marktel]

I think just about everyone here, and in the media, miss the point. If you use iTunes and have an iPod, even if if your music isn't encoded in Apple's protected format, you will likely prefer an Apple cell phone over something by another manufacturer so long as Apple's product is of comparable quality and has a similar feature set. If you have a large library of songs purchased from the iTunes store, it is very unlikely you will buy something other than an Apple cell phone if you are planning on listening to music on your phone.
The iPod becomes a sales leader for Apple's cell phone, which guarantees sales, and it protects Apple from the possibility that current iPod users will buy someone else's cell phone, replace their music library and cease using the iTunes music store. If Apple's phone serves only to protect Apple from music playing cell phones, it will be a success.
Mark

[mouse]

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As mature as the market is, mobile-phone operating systems are still in the dark ages. They're like the old PCs before the Mac came along. I'm a total gadgeteer, but I have yet to navigate a mobile phone or PDA menu system that doesn't make me cast hopeful glances over my shoulder for that blonde olympic runner swinging the slegehammer. Even for a straight-up mobile phone with no features more unique than a rational user-interface design, I stand ready to buy. Bring it on, Apple!

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Great analogy and well said. I'm quite tech oriented, but find navigating menus and changing settings on my 1 year old Motorola phone a nightmare! One example of many: Want to change text entry (eg to iTAP)? You must first create a new message, start typing, then select an obscure menu button to access the change setting. I have scoured the entire menu system and there is no way to change that setting without first starting a message...wt*!!!!! My rant list for that phone is lengthy! Waiting for the iPhone.

[teknova]

I agree. I think that if there is an iPhone at all, then it will most likely be a Wifi VOIP phone. I hope people are not setting themselves up for a severe disappointment. We will know shortly. It will be disasterous for Apple if it doesn't enter this market.
I'll be getting a Sony Ericsson W810i Walkman Phone if no iPhone shows up by mid January. The Sony has a 2Megapixle Camera, FM Radio and can take a 4MB memory card for it's MP3 Player. I'l be giving my 4MB Nano to my kid brother.
Apple needs to enter this market and fast because more and more people are choosing phones that offer multiple functions. I don't want to be carrying both a iPod and a Phone around.

[solipsism]

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I agree. I think that if there is an iPhone at all, then it will most likely be a Wifi VOIP phone. I hope people are not setting themselves up for a severe disappointment. We will know shortly. It will be disasterous for Apple if it doesn't enter this market.
I'll be getting a Sony Ericsson W810i Walkman Phone if no iPhone shows up by mid January. The Sony has a 2Megapixle Camera, FM Radio and can take a 4MB memory card for it's MP3 Player. I'l be giving my 4MB Nano to my kid brother.
Apple needs to enter this market and fast because more and more people are choosing phones that offer multiple functions. I don't want to be carrying both a iPod and a Phone around.

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I think you are setting yourself for disappointment if you think it will have an FM radio and wi-fi. Why would Apple include these options? Just like on the Zune these functions are useless and not what the majority needs or wants. And imagine how much faster battery life would diminish if you had wi-fi pointlessly running all the time.

[Terrin]

GOOD GOD PEOPLE, APPLE WILL NOT RELEASE AN "IPHONE." Instead, Apple will likely release a phone capable iPod that will replace the current video iPod. Accordingly, I do not see why the so called "iPhone" will not be as popular as the iPod, being that it IS likely going to be the iPod.
If I would pay $250 plus for an iPod, clearly I would pay the same price, maybe a bit more, for the same thing but with phone capabilities (assuming the phone features do not affect the music player).
Apple's approach will not be to market a phone, but instead to market an iPod that can make calls. That is a smart approach, one I am betting Apple will take.
Also, if rumors sites are to be believed, Apple has ordered parts for something like 14 million units. If true, Apple is expecting to sell as many so called "iPhones" as iPods. The only way this makes sense is if the iPod is the iPhone.

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Lets assume, just for a moment, that Apple really is planning on releasing an iPhone, a combination of a mobile phone, portable media player, and, possibly, a PDA. Will it be a big hit? Hugely successful? Who knows. I personally think its unlikely such a product would approach the popularity of the iPod. But I dont think it would do nearly as poorly as Kanellos predicts. <a href="http://www.macworld.com/weblogs/editors/2006/12/flop/index.php">[more]</a>

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[sigma8]

I agree that article predicting doom sounds really off.
The author also under-credits Apple's success in the MP3 market. There were already very capable mp3 players by Creative and whoever was making the Rio at the time. Back then, the iPod was considered horrifically overpriced, yet it still succeeded. And that's despite the fact that it spent its first two years (ish) being mac-only.
I look at the iPod, and I see a triumph of style, marketing, and product design. Probably in that order. Another category to consider is laptops. Again, Apple's sense of style generally dwarfs its competitors. Apple doesn't own the laptop market to the extent that it dominates the mp3 player market, but that doesn't mean they aren't successful in it, or that they won't persist in it for a long time.
If I had to make the vaguest prediction about the iPhone, it's that it will be one of the most appealingly designed phones we've seen, and will get a very compelling marketing push.. Given people's (environmentally horrific) tendency to upgrade phones at least once per year, I think it will sell far, far too many units to be considered a failure.
I mean, look at the Razr.. Mediocre phone...massive success story? Yet, an Apple phone will fail?

[sigma8]

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GOOD GOD PEOPLE, APPLE WILL NOT RELEASE AN "IPHONE." Instead, Apple will likely release a phone capable iPod

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Does anyone really care what they call it? I don't. Remember, we're talking about Apple. Until it's released, everything is i-Something. Remember everyone's utter shock when Garageband didn't start with an "i"?
Maybe they'll call it a Fii.