Re: DEVELOPERS WILL SELL TO HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS
Whitedog, I came to similar conclusions on much of what you say, before I made my first post in this thread. Laptops will be first and the high end towers will be last to changeover.
Certainly the increase in productivity a Dual G5 offers, outweighs waiting about 2 years (range of 18-30 months depending on how Apple moves on this).
I still think developers dropping PPC support will happen sooner rather than later especially those video/graphics based apps that use Altivec.
I do think the current crop of Dual G5s will have a shorter lifespan though. It's only my hunch though but neither Apple (and Jobs keynote/sales pitch) nor the develpers are currently convincing me otherwise.
My Dual 800 G4 purchased in 2001, rund FCP5 just fine 4 years after I bought it, with at least a year or longer, it'll be running what should remain the current version of FCP, likely to or through 2006. That's 5 years of current version compatibility. I DO NOT THINK a Dual G5 purchased today, will be able to run the then current version of FCP in 2009 or 2010 (4-5 year period). Again just my hunch, but this is what I mean by a newly purchased G5 having a shorter compatible life span.
Instead of buying a Dual 2.7, I have to look at a Dual 2.3, and older Dual 2.5 or even a Dual 2.0 (given lack of PCI-X and only 4 memory slots) since this computer will likely have to be replaced sooner and, rather than being relagated to slower 2nd work station, I'd be forced to by TWO Intel Macs or get by with just one. I hope this makes the business decisons I, and other have to make. In addition, those who purchased Dual G5s 2003-2004, who MIGHT upgrade in 2006, probably won't now. This is why Mac Desktop sales will fall dramatically in the next two years.
Put it another way, buying a Dual G5 is still better than not buying one for a business using a Dual G4 and has the demand for the productivity increase but the actual long term VALUE of such purchase has, my hunch, declined dramatically.
Apple could do things to counter the likely drop in desktop sales. They could lower the price on the current models . . . but they certainly have many reasons NOT to do that. Certainly cutting production accounting for lower demand can decrease the lose for them and may make more sense than cutting price to keep up demand but have a much smaller profit margin per unit.
I do not believe the current Dual G5 will stay compatible with future releases as long as my Dual G4. Many people will delay purchase or, if buying, will spend less, seeing the purchase as shorter term value than before.
Apple may or may not want to change pricing, offer something or whatever to change the perception (real or imagined . . . the developers may well support PPC through 2009). I wish they would, at least, convince me a Dual G5 will be as valuable as my Dual G4 has been. In any case, I'll likely spend less, thousands of others will spend less or simply hold off for two years.
